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Anikio Chosen to Create Virtual Tour for 2021 Saskatoon Home Lottery Home

We’re really excited to announce that Anikio was chosen to create the virtual tour for the Saskatoon Hospital Home Lottery showhome in Greenbryre! The home, at 4,500 sqft and $2.5 million dollars, is stunning and we are very honoured to have been chosen to capture this home, its grand architecture, and intricate interior design. While it’s too early to let you in on some of the really unique features of the tour we’ll be creating, I think it’s safe to share that we will be shooting almost 150 360-degree panoramas and expect that this will take a week or so of time to complete from start to finish.  Virtual tours are more important than ever during the second wave of COVID-19, and while nothing beats an in-person viewing, it is important that we do our best to make online viewings as close as possible to the real thing.  This virtual tour is an ambitious undertaking to mirror the ambition in the home itself and we really can’t wait to get started!

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Introducing: Live Panoramas

Image Depicting a Live Panorama's ability to show the same 360-degree scene at day and night

Recently, we announced our capability to offer Live Guided Tours and Google Street View integration. Today, we’re announcing another exciting feature: Live Panoramas! Bring a scene to life and see your location in a whole new light! Live panoramas can be included in a virtual tour to showcase spectacular scenes, lighting, or any major difference in a location. Summer to winter. Render to actual. Crowded to empty. The result is captivating. While you’re having a look around, you’ll see the scenery change and slowly evolve.

This is a capability we’re proud to introduce to Saskatchewan in our continuing effort to revolutionize what virtual tours can do.

Why Include a Live Panorama?

In the example above, we have a home with a well-lit deck (plus Christmas lights) with western exposure. So we can showcase one of the best aspects – the sunset – and have it slowly introduced into the scene. This unexpected transition adds a sense of ‘wow’ to the view they were already looking at. It takes a throwaway line about western exposure in the description and brings it to life.

Where Else Would Live Panoramas Be Used?

There are more possibilities than we have the space – or even imagination – to list. Anywhere that a meaningful or impactful transition can highlight an exciting features about a location is a great candidate for a live panorama.

Above we showed a day-sunset-night transition to show the different lighting and western exposure. But we could just as easily be showing:

  • A theatre stage in different configurations
  • A patio with shade or screens up and down
  • A restaurant during the day and evening
  • A lounge that becomes a bar at night
  • A tourist attraction in winter and summer
  • A construction project before and after completion

Layered Tours: Another Option

Sometimes, it makes more sense to let the viewer control which scene they are viewing. So we can also create layered virtual tours where the entire location is filmed in various states.

For example, imagine you maintain an outdoor trail that is used for hiking in the summer and cross-country skiing in the winter. The user can view the whole trail in summer mode and never see a snowflake unless they clicked a button to change to winter time. In fact, with our deep linking, you could even provide a different link directly to summer and winter time depending on the season!

Or a tour of a finished home. Click a button and see the same tour except while the house is under construction. If your architect has a 3D CAD rendering of the home, we could even integrate those rendering into another layer on the same tour.

More Features To Come

We’re not done telling you about all the amazing capabilities our virtual tours have. Not by a long shot. Stay tuned for more updates coming soon!

With Anikio’s virtual tours, the options are limited only by your imagination!

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Opening Your Business to Virtual Foot Traffic with Google Street View

“Google Maps is the Dominant Local Search Engine”

–   SearchEngineLand.com, Nov 2019

But what if the people searching for your business or the service you provide could then jump right from Google Maps into your location? Soak up the atmosphere, look at the items on the shelf, the showroom or lobby instantly? Pre-COVID, 56% of people listed the first action they were most likely to take after finding a business on Google Maps was to visit in person. In the post-pandemic world of 2020, that number is unknown. What IS clear is that people still would prefer an in-person visit where possible. According to Google’s own statisticslistings with photos and a virtual tour are twice as likely to generate interest. Which probably means that Google, on their mission to show content most interesting to searchers, is more likely to show listings with photos and virtual tours first, all else being equal.
A case study of New York restaurants found that on average, restaurants that had incorporated Google Street View had a 30% higher click through to reservations. And the visitors that viewed those Google Street View virtual tours also clicked through to reserve 20% more than visitors of the same restaurant that didn’t open the Street View. Finally, 84% of the surveyed customers said that the virtual tour played a factor in their restaurant choice.

Google Street View Virtual Tours for Business

Getting a virtual tour of your business can help maintain or give you a competitive edge. At Anikio, we can create a fully branded, custom virtual tour that offers more than just a look around. An interactive tour that engages the customers. Have a salesperson on the floor that can come to life and introduce your business with a click. Popup information on a product with a “Buy now” button. The tour can be hosted by us or we can compile it to run on your website directly. And of course, we can publish a version of the same tour (subject to Google’s limitations) on Google Street View as well.

Dropping our little guy right into the middle of an Anikio Google Street View tour
Dropping our little guy right into the middle of an Anikio Google Street View tour

COVID-19 has made it more important than ever for your business to have a local presence online. We are eager to help! Learn more about our virtual tours or contact us directly for more information and/or a quote.

 

 

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Introducing Live Guided Virtual Tours!

Live Guided Tour Modes

 

From Virtual Open Houses to Virtual Field Trips

We’re really excited to introduce a feature to our virtual tours that makes the post COVID world feel a little bit more like it used to. Thanks to our new virtual tour engine, Anikio’s Live Guided Tours allow our customers to take clients, students or colleagues on a virtual walk-through that truly is shared. Live-Guided Tours allow you to have a video conference inside of a virtual tour, turning virtual tours into real experiences and adding a personal touch whether it’s a one-on-one call or a virtual field trip.

What Are Live Guided Tours?

This is more than screen sharing. Now, you can take your guests “by the hand” on a 360 degree virtual tour. As you turn to look at a feature you want to show off or walk into the next room, your guests will see exactly what you see. Or, if you grant permission, they can show you around to ask questions as they go. Synchronizing where you look, you can take turns on controlling the virtual tour. And of course, guests can be allowed to “unhook” from that and take a closer look where THEY want while you’re talking with each other. With a simple button click they hook back onto where the host is (equally, the host can force any guest to join back into their viewpoint with a button click).  

The host (whether you’re a landlord, realtor, teacher, or business owner) can point out areas of interest and discuss what’s being seen in 360º by everybody in real time. The guest can follow where the host takes him, look around on his own or ask for permission to control the tour for everybody as if he were the host.

And as host, you set the parameters for your experience. Are users allowed to unhook? Ask for control? Can they hear each other or just you? So if you’re a realtor doing a walk through to introduce 20 other realtors to a new listing, you can turn on presentation mode. 30 seconds after that’s finished, you can do a one-on-one with a potential buyer… without waiting for the realtors to leave or driving across town.

Of course, your guests can still view the tour on their own. But if you really want to walk through and help them understand the potential of the space, now you have the option to do that virtually!

And Live Guided Tours are accessible on both desktop and mobile devices, so your clients can dial in from their mobile phones as well.

 

How It Works

First of all, we have to create the account and credentials for you to act as host of the tour. Let us know that you’d like to have Live Guided Tours when we create your virtual tour and we’ll set everything up for you.

Already have an Anikio virtual tour? No problem! We can add this capability to an existing tour as well!

Hosting

Once we’ve published your virtual tour, you will receive credentials to sign on as a host. Now you’ve opened the line and guests visiting your virtual tour will see that a Live Guided Tour is available and and join the session.

All you need to do is right-click on your virtual tour and select “Start Live Guided Tour”. You’ll be asked for the name you wish to display as well as the password that Anikio provided. 

NOTE: Anyone currently viewing the virtual tour when you log in will not be able to see that you’re available to host until they refresh or re-open the tour.

Showing the menu option that starts hosting a live guided tour
Right click on your tour to open this menu

The first time, you will be quickly shown a few windows that explain the buttons and options available as host. Make sure you read through them, they do a much better job explaining than we are here! There are several different modes you can choose that determine how much interaction guests are allowed with you, the tour, and other guests.

Different Hosting Modes Available
The built-in tutorial showing some of the host options

Notifications and Permissions

Once you’re through these explanation windows, you’re ready to be called. Make sure your settings allow for notifications in your browser. Otherwise, you won’t be able to be notified of an incoming call.

In your browser, you’ll also need to give permission to access the camera and microphone. The browser system will ask you this automatically the first time that somebody calls you. Make sure you click “Allow” to grant access in the permission window. Even if you opt to not use your webcam for this guest (a separate setting) allowing access now will save you some digging into the permissions later. You can of course grant or revoke this permission in your browser settings at all times.

Be sure to allow access to camera and microphone so guests can see and hear you
You’ll be asked once if you’d like to allow access to camera and microphone so guests can see and hear you. Even if you allow access, you can still turn off microphone or camera for each call.

Should you not see this window or accidentally deny permission, you can go to your browser settings, search for the term “camera” and under  “Site Settings” and edit the sites that block and allow your camera access. This is the case for both host and guests accessing Live Guided Tours.

Guests

Guests will only be able to call when there is a host logged in and Do Not Disturb is turned off. As soon as the host has logged in, any new visitor of  the virtual tour will see the option to “START LIVE SESSION” on the top of the screen as shown below.

When clicked, the guest will be asked to give their name. Then, just click “Connect” to call in to the Live Session. Make sure to grant permission to your camera and microphone.

NOTE: If the guest opens the tour before the host has logged in, the guest will need to refresh their browser (F5 key or ) to see this option.

Calling to join a Live Guided Tour as a Guest
Calling to join a Live Guided Tour as a Guest

When a guest first enters the tour, they’ll also be shown a welcome screen with instructions on how to use the tour.

Welcome Screen Shown To Guests
Welcome Screen Shown To Guests

And that’s it. Ready to explore, show, guide and talk – together.

Real estate showings – accompanied and guided. Virtual field trips to the Western Development Museum or the Remai Modern Art Gallery. Personalized sales presentations and virtual showrooms staffed with actual humans. Virtual group plant visits with colleagues from all over the world. You name it. We’ll make it happen!

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When One Door Closes, A New Virtual Tour Opens

An example of a virtual tour on Anikio's new Virtual Tour Enginer=

Sometimes, when a door closes another door opens. A shinier, stronger, more incredible door that you never would have even noticed were it not for the first door closing. A door that is so exciting, you’d spend the first three sentences talking about it. A virtual door!

Let me take you back to September 4, 2020. Our first child, due November 8, had grown impatient and broke mom’s water at 30 weeks. We were scared, stressed, and at the hospital doing anything and everything we could to keep him (spoiler alert) in there. It was not the time that I would have chosen to receive the news that our virtual tour provider is going out of business. But there it was. A huge issue, because we had 45 virtual tours shot and hosted that would no longer exist. With customers attached to those tours that expected to be able to reuse them. And that home had been the only tour partner I’d found that could make our business model work for Anikio. It was not a great day.

The Problem With Most Virtual Tour Options

You see, the number one user of virtual tours, by far, is realtors. Realtors have their listings filmed, the virtual tour stays up for a few months, and by then the property is sold, pulled, or the agent loses the listing most of the time. That virtual tour isn’t needed again. Virtual tour providers are set up to work within that model, with subscriptions that limit the maximum number of ‘active’ tours at a given time and pricing that makes virtual tours totally inaccessible to other markets. Matterport, I’m looking at you.

With Anikio, we had a solution that would allow us to retain and re-use tours year after year and, with enough tour renewals, would pay the bills on our hosting subscription fees. That allowed us to price the tours within reach for rentals, which is still our core focus. And then we didn’t.

The Next Generation of Virtual Tours

We scoured the internet for options. We looked at pricing, ran numbers, and did a bunch of ninja math. We reviewed and built virtual tours, had phone calls with sales agents, tried option after option. And what we finally found did require a fair amount of capital up front, but gives us total control over the virtual tours we create. More over, it takes Anikio virtual tours from being a budget option for rental property to the premier option for virtual tours in Saskatchewan. It opens doors (uh oh, here we go again with the doors!) for our customers to have a virtual presence like never before at a time, during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it has never been more important to have an online presence.

Our virtual tours look better, have more interactivity options, more customization and user interface capabilities, and more advanced marketing tools than we have ever seen in this province. We can integrate directly with Google’s Street View so a business with an Anikio tour can walk right in from Google and get a feeling for their physical location. We’re unlocking the possibilities of Virtual Open Houses with our new Live Guided Tour option that lets landlords or realtors host and show a property virtually to potential renters or buyers anywhere in the world. We’re able to create a unique, Custom Branded Experience for businesses or realtors. And now virtual tours can be turned easily into native Facebook and YouTube 360-degree videos.

This really is just scratching the surface of the possibilities of our new virtual tour engine. Embedded floor plans, Deep Linking (directly bring someone into a specific room), Google Analytics, Information Windows, Integrated Photo Album, Dynamic Introductions, Voice-to-text, Integrated Sound/Music, Virtual Reality Ready, and so much more!

We can’t wait to share more details on some of these many features here and on our virtual tour page!

Oh Right! That Other Thing

So, a few weeks later, Mikali, our first son, was born! 8 weeks early but he has been doing amazingly well. It certainly has been an adjustment working from home and having a child first in NICU and now at home also, but we are so grateful that he’s healthy and doing well.

 

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A Day of Firsts: Photographing an Acreage Near Prince Albert (From Above)

Yesterday was a pretty exciting day! Guy Fortier, a realtor based out of Saskatoon, hired Anikio to create a virtual tour and take photos for a sprawling, 3600 sqft acreage about 20 km west of Prince Albert. This was Anikio’s first out-of-town shoot. It was the first home above 2000 sqft that we’ve shot. And it was the first time we got to take some aerial photos!

Yes, Anikio has a drone. And a drone license, by the way. You may not have known this, but Dean is actually a private pilot, so navigating a drone is pretty straightforward. The real challenge in Saskatoon is the extremely conservative rules for use ‘around’ an airport. It is certainly possible to have some drone photos taken in city limits with planning and depending on the location, but it’s not a given that it can be done legally. On the other hand, an acreage 20 km from a town or airport? No problem at all! And this acreage really benefited from the aerial photos. There is just no way to capture the grounds and such a large home together otherwise.

One thing we didn’t account for is how much time this would take. The home faces south and is mostly glass, featuring some beautiful views of the pond outside as well as sunlit rooms. This makes for a lot of post-photography work to make sure that we capture those views well, especially in the virtual tour. On top of that, the size of the home required 45 (!) 360 degree photos for the virtual tour. That’s about double what a more typical 1600 sqft home would take. Photos? The same and more. Not to mention the drone photos, which we offered this time for free since Guy has been a great supporter of Anikio. All said and done, it was a learning experience in terms of time requirements for a home this size.

But we’re really happy with the results and it was a lovely day to spend in what felt like a quiet, remote lodge up north. Especially after being cooped up hiding from COVID for some time.

Take a Virtual Tour

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Should Saskatchewan Lift Restrictions?

Today, Premier Moe announced that he would be releasing a roadmap to re-opening the province little by little tomorrow. I believe that a cautious approach is warranted but that re-opening is worth consideration. However, I would personally waited one week more to see the results of both Orthodox Easter and especially of this recent warm snap. Some very low case growth numbers is also resulting in an excess of optimism. In fact, I was concerned in the speech from Premier Moe that the tone he struck was that we have won and not that we are winning. I believe the Premier knows very well that we have stopped the first wave but must be vigilant. And I understand balancing the need for positivity and optimism when many of us are getting more crazy than normal. But it’s important that it’s understood that we have won the first battle but there is still a war to fight. Singapore’s second wave should be a warning about how things can get out of control even where they have a lot more controls, analysis, and restrictions.

Yes, we have flattened the curve. There is no doubt about it. But we can’t lose sight that the objective was to ultimately buy time for our health care system to prepare. From what the SHA reports, they are. I’m not convinced though, that their plan really constitutes the best use of this bought time. For example, I’ve heard that additional ICU rooms that were planned to be added to some hospitals have been halted because case growth has slowed. This is backwards. Case growth slowed to give the SHA time to get those resources in place. We may not need them if we are lucky. But we didn’t go through the last 5 weeks to throw that effort away.

Today’s Motto: Proceed with Caution

With this and several other troubling stories in mind, I generated several graphs in early April. I have sat on them because I am very concerned that people may misinterpret them. They are not predictions. They are not expert models or simulations. They are extremely simplified graphs that show some very basic scenarios and what those scenarios would look like, graphically. Please don’t repost them without the rest of this article. Please don’t think they’re proof either that we’re doomed or out of the woods. The intent of these graphs is to understand how exponential growth, even at low levels, can be a hard thing to manage once the genie’s out of the bottle. Now if we could all apply this to our pre-COVID savings accounts! One other important note, the hospital capacity is the “with reduced services” number from SHA but doesn’t include excess COVID-19 beds in overflow facilities. Because, let’s just not get to that point. As I urge the province, I urge you, to: proceed with caution.

One other note of caution that needs to be really understood. We actually DON’T KNOW if recovering from Covid-19 means immunity to Covid-19. And if only a small percentage of recoveries have antibodies, as may be the case, well, all models about allowing more infections to build herd immunity are moot. And then we have to totally rethink how to keep the world running with an ongoing pandemic while we look for vaccines and ways to test entire populations at a time or at least a better understanding of risk, spread, and immunity. The following article reference pre-publication studies which have not been peer reviewed yet. Normally, this wouldn’t be worth looking at yet but due to the fact that we’re flying by the seat of our pants here, these pre-pub studies represent an educated guess.

Scenario 1: What if Saskatchewan Did Nothing To Flatten The Curve of COVID-19?

By the time I created this graph, we had already succeeded in flattening the initial curve. So why produce it still? Partly as a basis of comparison against other measures taken, and partly as a defence for the measures that we did take. Now, when I say “did nothing” I mean it. As in, absolutely zero. We continued on blissfully unaware and modified zero behaviours. In truth, some of us would be staying home as much as possible and limiting social interactions as much as possible, government order or no. It is incredibly unlikely that we would blindly sail upwards of 10,000 cases in the province and not even be a little more cautious. So think of this graph as “what does 22% growth (our initial trajectory) look like”. How long does it take us to get to 100,000 cases? Why 100,000? We are assuming at that point, there would be enough recoveries, deaths, and asymptomatic or unreported cases – especially if numbers grew that quickly – that growth would slow considerably. So the ridiculous becomes absurd.

OK, all that said, here we are. 22% growth we would be crossing 100,000 cases already by May 1. Hospitalization lags initial onset of a case but a week later the province’s worst case provisions (overflow in rinks, schools) would be overwhelmed. Not to mention that many of the health care workers we depend on would have fallen ill also, supplies would be utterly absent, etc. So thank you, Saskatchewan, for being prudent and cautious!

Graph showing what Saskatchewan COVID-19 cases could look like if no restrictions were in place

Scenario 2: What if Saskatchewan Kept Current COVID-19 Restrictions In Place?

When I created this graph, it looked like cases in the province might be growing at around 3%. It has since flattened to 1% growth. That said, we are one super spreader away from being back at 3% or likely higher. One person visiting family in Calgary. What you see if that as growth in new cases dropped, growth in recoveries continued on at the previous trajectory (because recoveries lag onset of the virus). So the number of active cases drops down to basically zero before picking back up again at the new but lower growth rate of cases (3%). And then, assuming a constant trajectory, we reach the overwhelmed hospital stage around Halloween but still within the SHA plan using civic facilities for overflow. One assumes that as the number of cases and recoveries grow, the slower the rate of spread would be. So again, it’s possible that we’d be looking towards December for that threshold. The problem here is that it is too long for people to stay home, not working. Psychologically. It is also quite hard on the economy, which is obviously of secondary importance to human life, but up until fall or winter, we have a lot of excess capacity to have more cases in the public. At least, according to the SHA. And that will bring us nicely to scenario 3.

Graph showing how even our current, low growth rates do eventually add up

 

Scenario 3: What if Saskatchewan Slightly Lifts Restrictions Temporarily?

This was a theoretical scenario two weeks ago but it looks like we’re here. I put together a model where restrictions were very lightly lifted on April 21. Yesterday. Too soon but I know the government is under a lot of pressure to reopen ASAP, so I thought they’d jump on it one week after Easter. Turns out it was a week and two days. As above, you have the active cases and hospitalized lagging the initial growth trajectory so it drops and picks up to 2-3 cases (probably an error in my basic formulas), drops again and eventually starts picking up with the 6% growth rate that we assumed. Why 6%? Well, we expect that people will naturally be a bit more cautious, at least with strangers, and some of the current safeguards will remain in place. As well, we assumed a very limited relaxation of restrictions. 6% may be optimistic but I’m hoping that in light of the drop in case growth to 1% over the last week, it actually is pessimistic.

In either case, as long as there is a growth rate, we continue to march towards that point where we start running out of hospital rooms or people to infect. Growth hits levels where alarm bells are going off somewhere in June. At that point, we have around 260 hospitalized patients and almost 18,000 cases. Arguably the alarm bells should have gone off earlier, but here we are. No Canada Day gatherings. Instead, all the current restrictions are back in place. Growth slows to 3%. But not overnight. It takes time for the restrictions to have the desired effect and just in time, we curb the number of hospitalizations below the threshold in July and start seeing a decrease. But about a month later, because of the sheer volume of people, even at 3% we cross back over that threshold again and we start for the arenas. However, also around that point, we are around 100,000 cases. By a trick of exponential graphs, we actually have around 70,000 recovered cases and  58,000 active cases by August 20 but because exponential graphs.  Why does it look like there are so many more active cases? Because the space between smaller intervals is larger. If you look at the scale, there is as much space from 1-10 as from 10,000 – 100,000. So we also expect that growth would have slowed substantially by this point.

Graph showing what Saskatchewan COVID-19 cases could look like if we lift some restrictions temporarily

 

So… What Does This Mean?

Well, it means that unless there’s a vaccine or a global 4-week absolute lockdown, we can’t expect to fully stop the spread of COVID-19. But it also means that the actions we’ve taken were worth doing, if health authorities use the time wisely to obtain resources, ramp up testing, train, and prepare. It means that a temporary and partial lift of restrictions might be a good way to balance economic and social needs with protecting ourselves IF it is true that recovered cases are immune for a sufficient amount of time and if there is no way to vaccinate or treat the virus that can be tested and proven in the next two months. However, it also shows that exponential growth tends to ratchet up. When you have 10,000 active cases, even a drop to 3% still means 300 new cases in a single day. So as measures and restrictions are lifted, expect them to return sooner or later as the case count grows. Probably by summer. We should know that what happens with immunity and have a better idea of spread before we really do go ahead and let loose. We may just be accelerating our progress towards overload. But unless there is some other way of treating this virus, I’m not sure we have much choice at this point. We just have to proceed with caution. See? I told you the conclusion way back near the beginning!

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Maps Issue Resolved At Last!

Well, it’s probably past time I update you on something that isn’t related to COVID-19. We have been experiencing an issue with our use of Google Maps. More specifically, users without registered accounts were seeing “development mode” or “problem loading maps” issues when searching properties on the home page or looking at a specific property’s location on the homepage.

We have been working very hard on attempting to resolve this with Google, our developers, and our even our web host. In the end, the web hosting company came to the rescue with a backup from December this morning. So if you logged in today, you may briefly have seen some Christmas wishes. ’tis the season! We were able to painstakingly re-create every update, tweak and change to Anikio since December until finally we reproduced the issue. Or at least we thought that we had. Then we realized that the browser had just auto-logged us back in. Oops! However, after more searching, it appears the problem was related to the way the website loads. We attempted to make a speed improvement that affected the loading of the map, but only in cases where the user wasn’t logged in. Crazy!

The problem is solved! This is such a relief! It made it impossible for me to try to recruit new landlords and property managers. Which meant less properties available than usual for browsing. The worst part is that I don’t know how long this was going on. Because I’m always logged in, it wasn’t until a user reported a different issue last weekend that we first realized there was a problem at all. So please, if you see something that isn’t working right, let me know! And I’ll do my best to log out once in a while and look around, too! 🙂

Have a great Greek/Orthodox Easter whether you celebrate or not. I know that I will!

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Let’s Not Open the Floodgates

Recently, an article from a US right-wing rag called The College Fix has been making the rounds. In it, an epidemiologist (I haven’t verified his credentials but they do sound good) named Knut Wittkowski, a former department head at Rockefeller University in New York, makes some claims that are questionable at best.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m all for healthy debate and questioning assumed beliefs. We ARE going to have to have a discussion about when to start lifting restrictions and weighing the risks of continued isolation with economic and social disaster. On April 10 here in Saskatchewan, growth in total cases has dropped to 3% (and active cases will decline significantly if this continues). Right now we are buying time for hospitals to get the equipment, resources, and setup they need to allow us to lift at least some restrictions. But the College Fix article and the interview of Knut Wittkowski on which the article is based is not that discussion. It’s not balanced, reasoned, and at times defies logic.

I don’t want to link to the article or interview because garbage should be removed, not shared so they can rake in advertising dollars. But I will quote directly from it and have saved an archive PDF of the interview since these sorts of things seem to disappear or change to suit the day. I like to think that Wittkowski, who I will just call by his first name (Knut) really does believe that what he’s proposing is right. There is part of me that wonders though, if, given the alignment with Trump rhetoric and just how shallow the argument is, he isn’t aiming for a cushy appointment with the white house. Nonetheless, some selected talking points I wish to evaluate are below.

Why Flatten The Curve?

“Well, what people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.”

OK. The guy’s an epidemiologist and he doesn’t know why? Even if he is ardently against flattening the curve, for whatever reason, he can’t “see a good reason” to slow the spread and reduce the overburdening on health care resources, he doesn’t deserve an interview.

For those of us that aren’t claiming to be epidemiologists, here’s a good simulation of how social distancing works and an article on why it’s needed. In essence, yes, the idea is to spread the disease infection time out to ensure that we don’t exceed our capability to treat not only coronavirus patients but also the rest of the diseases, illnesses, injuries, and transplants that go on daily. If all the ventilators are in use, you can’t have surgery to remove an early stage tumour.

Those familiar with our hospitals know that there were beds in the hallways BEFORE Covid-19 hit. We are trying to save as many lives as possible and avoid being in a place where these decisions need to get made about who gets saved and who dies.

Once we have sufficient health care capacity, yes, the approach of allowing more spread makes sense. The virus isn’t going to disappear and short of a vaccine which may be a year or more away, most of us will catch it.

At that point, we will need to pivot to protecting the at risk exclusively so that enough people have the virus that the spread grinds to a halt and it is safe for them to be in society again. These are future states, not present ones, at least not in Saskatchewan or the US. Just letting the disease run rampant should not have been the only action or more accurately inaction that our governments took.

Hide The Elderly Somewhere

“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated.”

Very, very mild symptoms. Does this sound like anyone you know (rhymes with dump) that’s always trying to minimize (or maximize) things? Some – we don’t know how many, but it may be as many as 10x the number of known cases- have no symptoms at all or mild symptoms. Maybe even “very, very” mild symptoms. It’s not that what he’s saying is wrong, it’s that he’s choosing words to paint a specific type of picture in your mind that this is some trivial little thing.

If we’re going to balance minimizing, it’s worth reading some first hand reports of people that have had coronavirus. Moving on to the next sentence, his argument is to close the nursing homes but life goes on as normal, let the kids get and spread it. Where do the elderly go? Not to family, then, obviously. One presumes some facility where all the old people are rounded up and live together for a while. What do they call those places? It’s a nursing home. But not a nursing home. That’s dangerous!

I’m not meaning to diminish the risk to the elderly in nursing homes. If I had a relative in one, I’d take them out. Even Knut implies that nursing homes are not a safe place to be right now. But many elderly still need care, and all still need food, supplies, etc. Where is this magical place we whisk them all away to that has no chance of infection from the workers that are caring for them? What does this system look like and how is it different than nursing homes now?

In Knut’s world of no restrictions, Covid-19 is spreading like wildfire outside the community, increasing the chance of infection to the isolated elderly from the people caring for them. I’m sure we could find a way to stock up a place and then also ask support workers to be quarantined with the elderly at their work for a month, so it’s not impossible, but it’s again minimizing the risk.

The Pandemic Is Over. Long Live The Pandemic

Later, the interviewer asks a telling question.

Interviewer: “You were speaking to my producer the other day on the phone, and you said, ‘The pandemic is over.’ What do you mean by that?”

Knut: “There are no more new cases in China and in South Korea. The number of new cases in Europe is already beginning to decline. The virus came later to the US, so here we see a bit of an incline, maybe, and leveling off within the next couple of days. And if we see that the cases are not increasing dramatically, that means that the number of new infections has already declined substantially and peaked about a week ago.”

Keep in mind that this interview is dated April 1 & 2. On those dates respectively, China had 35 and 31 new cases respectively, according to Worldometers. But certainly less than weeks ago to the point that it’s much closer to zero than 1000. As I’m writing this on April 10, new cases in the US are in the 25000-35000 cases per day range and appear to have peaked or plateaued these past few days.

What Knut doesn’t say is that most states have also severely limited social gatherings and are in various states of lockdown. Where would those numbers be if everyone was out infecting each other still? Obviously not flat but that is his argument. This table shows that most states declared a state of emergency about two weeks before April 1 (mid March) and some have gone further in issuing stay-at-home orders near the end of March. Both of those actions would help in flattening the curve and have nothing to do with the pandemic being over or near over.

Oh, and by the way, South Korea had 101 and 89 cases respectively on April 1 & 2. And slightly off topic, but South Korea reported today that around 100 Covid-19 patients thought to have recovered appear to have had the virus reactivate. But sure, it’s over, although he is about to say “it would have been over” except for government meddling.

What Knut’s Really About

“Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science. If the government, if there had been no intervention, the epidemic would have been over, like every other respiratory disease epidemic. […] I think people in the United States and maybe other countries as well are more docile than they should be. People should talk with their politicians, question them, ask them to explain, because if people don’t stand up to their rights, their rights will be forgotten.”

We get to the crux of his position here. You can’t trust government. But trust me. I’m just going to shoot from the hip and make wild statements with no basis in fact because… I get my money from elsewhere. I’m entitled to actually do science but I’m not going to use it in any of my statements here which, again, are not going to be scientific commentary, but policy commentary despite not being in politics. This is, after all, an interview all about policy and flattening the curve vs. just letting a bunch of people die unnecessarily.

People may be docile, and perhaps nowhere moreso than here in Canada, but going along with a good plan is different than throwing reason to the wolves in the name of resistance. Question, sure. Question everything. Even interviews with epidemiologists and blog posts criticizing them. Don’t give people a pass because they conform to your anti-government or anti-whatever bias.

More Trouble With Numbers

Asked how many would die in his estimation (editorial comments in square brackets):

Okay. We have, right now, let’s take realistic numbers in the United States: we have about 25,000 cases every day, that is probably the upper limit—make it 30,000—who knows?”

So far, the peak has been about 35,000 new cases in the US in a single day. With countermeasures in place, that probably (hopefully) is going to remain the peak for the US. Not being critical here, estimation is hard, but now that we have progressed, facts are easy.

“But let’s talk about 25,000. 2% of them will actually have symptoms—that is 500 cases a day. Maybe a third or a fifth—let’s say half of them—will need to be hospitalized. That’s 250 patients a day. If they have been hospitalized for about 10 days, that means that we will have—our hospital system will have to deal with 2,500 patients every day for a certain period of time—that could be 3 or 4 weeks, and then the number will dramatically decrease again and the whole epidemic will be over.”

“2% of all symptomatic cases will die. That is 2% of the [25,000] a day. So that is 500 people a day, and that will happen over 4 weeks. So, that could be as high as 10,000 people.”

So far in the US, WITH social distancing and lockdowns in various states, there have been 18,000 deaths. By April 2, there had been 6,000 deaths. So 8 days after his maximum prediction, and again, WITH countermeasures in place, he is wrong by a huge degree. This is the guy you want to trust with informing policy to roll the dice and let the virus run through most of society unchecked??

Even from one sentence to the next, his definitions change. First 2% of the new cases will “actually have symptoms” then later that same 2% die. And then there’s a whole string of math based on this out-of-nowhere 2% number. If they are a known case, they probably have symptoms severe enough to get a test in the US where tests are still hard to come by or are celebrities.

CDC guidelines prioritize testing of symptomatic cases. I don’t have a number for how many of the known cases in the US are symptomatic and I’m not in the habit of making up numbers but I’m pretty confident that the number is much closer to 90% or even 100% than 2%.

Coronavirus Is NOT a Flu, Foo!

So, rerunning Knut’s numbers. Last 10 days, an average of 29,563 new cases per day. Knut says maybe 1/3 or 1/5 or maybe 1/2 need to be hospitalized and actually here we think the number is lower. But we’ll use Knut’s first guess of 1/3. Roughly 10,000 people per day. Assuming most hospital stays are 10 days (in Saskatchewan, we’re closer to a 12-day average), that’s 100,000 Covid patients added to the health care system. Not 2,500. Just a minor error.

My point isn’t to nitpick numbers. It’s that this guy is all over the place, has an obvious agenda, has already been proven to be inaccurate, doesn’t grasp why we should flatten the curve, and is speaking more from the world of myth and conspiracy than fact. He thinks this is the flu. Here’s one final bit from the interview to ponder.

Knut: “Social distancing definitely is good. It prevented the sky from falling down.”

Interviewer: “Are you being ironic?”

Knut: “Of course! I don’t know where these numbers [showing a reduction in potential deaths from social distancing] are coming from – they’re totally unrealistic. There are no indications that this flu is fundamentally different from every other flu.”

Quick interjection, an epidemiologist, scientist, or someone that cares about presenting fact would know that a coronavirus is not a flu the same way that a cold is not a flu. And if you’re thinking, “Oh, he just slipped up” he reinforces the “it’s a flu” myth 2 more times by the end of the quote. Scientists are not cavalier in their language and don’t throw words around like they don’t have meaning. He goes on to compare COVID-19 to a ‘regular’ flu and double down comparing to “other” flus.

The Virus That Hates Camping

Interviewer: “So, now we’re spending more time indoors. We’ve been told to go indoors. Isn’t that – doesn’t that help keep the virus going?”

Knut: “It keeps the virus healthy, yeah.”

Um, what?? The virus is just as happy living in your body alone on a deserted island as it is frolicking in your lungs near the TV. One might presume that he is saying that close contact from being indoors helps the virus spread, except that he has spent all the rest of this time saying that social distancing is for the chicken littles worried about the sky falling.

Interviewer: “So we should be told to go outdoors?”

Knut: “Yeah. Going outdoors is what stops every respiratory disease.”

And I will leave you to ponder that. One final note, though. The underlying assumption is that if you have COVID-19, you are immune from getting it again. That has not been proven. If immunity does occur, it’s also unknown how long that immunity would last. There are recent developments of cases in China and South Korea, thought recovered, either reactivating or catching the virus again.

Flu Part Two

Finally, to the point of “it’s like the flu.” All of us have some immunity to one type of flu variant or another. It’s a known quantity that our immune systems have dealt with in some variant or another. And there are immunizations every year for the flu variant that experts expect to hit hardest. As Knut has shown, they’re not always right. But when it comes to COVID-19, there is no immunity, and there (was) no previous variant that any of us had been exposed to.

What there is is an exponential spread through the population. Today’s 104,938 deaths are next week’s 200,000 deaths. If you are in contact, you’re likely to carry it whether you get sick or not. Flu deaths are not growing exponentially. 10,000 deaths today doesn’t become 20,000 in a week or so.

Finally, the season flu has a total mortality rate (young and old) in the US of around 0.1%. 1 person dies in every 1000. Actually shockingly high! 8 in 1000 symptomatic cases for 65+, 0.05  in 1000 (or 57 in 1 million) for under 18s.

People seem to get stuck because we don’t have a good handle on how many cases are asymptomatic. There are a lot of reasons that this is important to know. But for now, it is valid enough to use the symptomatic (known) cases causing death at least for estimating outcomes based on the number of known cases. Certainly asymptomatic cases are hard to measure regardless of the virus. So don’t get hung up that the actual rate may be lower than what is reported. It will. Of course. But that’s irrelevant right now to the people that know they have it in estimating their chances.

Even among known cases, Covid-19 mortality rates are all over the map. We are told that respiratory issues, smoking, vaping, diabetes, obesity and of course age are all factors that dramatically increase your risk of death regardless of age group. We also aren’t counting preventable deaths caused by overburden from COVID-19 as part of this mortality rate. Regardless, it seems that most think it’s at least 1% overall.

So if you’re comparing this to a flu, please reconsider. Reconsider what a moderate to bad case is like compared to a moderate to bad flu. Consider the exponential growth in cases. Consider that the world hasn’t shut down for a flu like this in over 100 years. Read some of the reports from young, otherwise healthy people that survived but suffered. Because you’re not guaranteed a pass if you’re young. You just have a much better CHANCE of surviving than your grandparents.

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Positive Coronavirus News: More Negatives!

We’ve been watching the COVID-19 case and test numbers in Saskatchewan these past few days with fingers crossed. Today marks the third day of sustained lower growth rates and while it’s early to declare a new growth rate, it is likely that we have slowed the overall growth in the province.

Have a look at the graph below. We had a 22% growth rate (doubling the infected every 4.5 days) right up until March 30. On March 31, there was a noticeable drop off in the growth rate and it has so far continued. Two weeks back from March 30 is March 16, which happens to be the day that the province announced it was going to close schools.

Graph of COVID-19 Coronavirus Cases Over Time in Saskatchewan

Our overall average growth rate, starting from the first day with 30 cases, is now 18% (5.5 days). Averaging over that time period doesn’t really do justice to our efforts to flatten the curve, though. Over the last few days, growth has slowed to an average of 6-7% (15 days). Again, it’s early to call victory, but the point of these graphs is to try to predict where we are going to see if action is needed. We’ll be updating the graph for future use to re-project the curve starting tomorrow. But we’ve already updated the graph below for Saskatoon, adding a new 13-day trend line to reflect the slowed growth here. We are basing that line off of Mar 31, which marks 90 cases and the beginning of the lower growth trend.

Saskatoon cases shown against various doubling rates

Finally, the graph that is most intended to indicate the spread of infection in the province. How does it look? We’re also seeing a decrease here (or at least a flattening) in the percentage of tests returning positive. So all signs are looking good. We’ll need at least a few more days to verify that this trajectory is real, but it certainly is encouraging. It seems likely that the spread has slowed.

Number of tests resulting in a positive case

As always, you can find updated charts daily on our COVID-19 page. Be sure to support local businesses – restaurants that are offering pickup/delivery are some of the hardest hit thanks to low margins. Get bread from a bakery. Our medical workers are out there saving lives everyday. We can do our part and help save livelihoods, and without social contact at all. Finally, I’ll leave you with this thought. Coronavirus is showing us all what a world looks like without 1 vaccine. I don’t want to imagine a world with no vaccines.